基于树轮宽度的伊塞克湖入湖径流量重建与分析

中亚区域气候与水文变化特征及其对全球气候变化的响应重要而复杂,伊塞克湖流域周边山区分布的天山云杉原始森林为揭示区域过去几百年气候水文变化事实和规律提供了良好的载体。本文利用伊塞克湖周边山区4个点的树木年轮宽度、入湖年径流量以及CRU格点气象资料,基于对树轮宽度指数对区域水文和气候要素响应关系分析,利用区域树轮宽度差值年表重建了伊塞克湖355a来的入湖径流量变化历史,二者线性转换方程的方差解释量为30．2％。重建径流量的丰枯阶段变化与天山北坡的玛纳斯河、乌鲁木齐河相对应。但与天山南坡的阿克苏河流域的径流量的低频变化特征不一致,在1850年前的变化趋势相反。空间相关分析发现伊塞克湖流域重建径流量变化能较好地代表中亚天山北坡以及哈萨克斯坦东南部和新疆北部平原区降水变化。此外,还发现了伊塞克湖径流量与北大西洋长周期年代际震荡（AMO）在年代际尺度的同步变化。     

August–September Runoff Variation in the Kara Darya River Determined from Juniper (Juniperus turkestanica) Tree Rings in the Pamirs-Alai Mountains, Kyrgyzstan, Back to 1411 CE

A 606 year runoff reconstruction of the Kara Darya River was developed, based on the tree-ring width chronology of Turkestan juniper (Juniperus turkestanica) from the Pamir-Alai Mountains of Kyrgyzstan. Preliminary comparison between the snow cover variation and these climate/runoff reconstructions found that Central Asian snow cover may have strong associations with large-scale ocean-atmosphere-land circulations. The runoff reconstruction demonstrated that instrumental runoff was not representative of runoff over the past 606 years. The drought of the 1960s-1990s resulted in low runoff levels during the past 50 years; however, this probably does not represent a worst-case scenario for the Kara Darya because the runoff reconstruction showed additional extremely low runoff prior to the 20th century. The reconstruction will provide a long-term perspective on runoff variation in the Kara Darya River basin, aid sustainable water resource management and be useful in guiding expectations of future variations and water resource planning.     

吉尔吉斯斯坦楚河过去407年径流量重建

紧邻丝绸之路经济带核心区的中亚地区跨境河流众多,水资源分配极不均衡.揭示中亚跨境河流径流变化规律,对水资源调配管理,缓解区域水资源紧张局面有深远影响,对促进东西方经济文化交流和"一带一路"建设具有重大的战略意义.文章选取中亚重要跨境河流——楚河为研究对象,利用吉尔吉斯斯坦天山山区雪岭云杉(Picea schrenkia...